Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Time enough for love*...

I have real business to attend.
*A must read for any fellow Heinlein fan**. 
**Don't start with this if new to Heinlein.

Its almost a new month, and its time for me to write up a recap of my progress. I'll be updating this post in snippets for the next few hours, until my next work shift. No updates tonight, I'll be busy selling the moon*** to a particular cashier.  I'll start with my financial situation. Then move to a brief overview of my health situation. If I have time, I'll close with a short recap of some of my goals

***Just a day for Heinlein
 This last week certainly saw me slip on the budgeting. But what I slipped on, I made up for by clamping down in other areas. In particular, the expenses came from beer and dinner-out, but I spent less on other recreational pursuits. It balanced out nicely. Compared to my situation at the start of May, I'm doing much better. Next month I will try and clamp down even harder on my recreational spending. Not because I "have" to, but because I want the extra silver money. Even with hours at work at a low, I'm still pulling through with a positive balance sheet. 

The best part, even though my FRN's aren't in as good a positive flow as I'd like, my other investments have seen great jumps. Silver of course, is the flagship, and I've invested double the starting hedge I did last month. It has been one of the most positive things I've done, but I have had to fight back the urge to strip cash flow for (my goal of) a five year investment and inflation hedge. 



How can you see this & not jump ship?
My stock investments chug along on autopilot, with ultra safe, but almost yield less returns. The amount in the accounts doesn't warrant my attention, I'm simply trying to accumulate more risk capital to invest later, and I want it to slowly (but safely) pool in case I have to drain it for emergency needs since I'm pushing down my liquidity. My solvency is through the roof though. 


J/k... Relax. 


As far as my health goes, its been going, going great. Despite a particular weekend bender, I've bounced back physically and mentally. Bodyfat is dropping according to mirror, I haven't been able to hit it with the calipers. Weight is stable, triceps growing, as is chest and lower back. I'm about to get back into sprinting, and my water intake and nutrition have been top notch. Even faced with some crazy scheduling, I've feel like I've been able to hit my daily caloric and macro goals.

So cheers to you and I, as we cross into a new month. Let us make it as productive as we can, in all things.




 

Monday, May 30, 2011

It might blow up...

...but it won't go pop.
* Your sexual innuendo for the day, courtesy of De La Soul.

I've been spending less time with this blog than I've intended, and some of you have called me out on it. Thankfully, I promise, my relative absence hasn't been due to some stress or problem. The cause is one I'm sure those of you who have followed me from the beginning understand.

I've been spending lots of time with two different girls (one is that cashier) and its costing my writing. But I'm getting back to routine, with the first of the month around the corner, its about time to buckle down.

On the first, I'll lay out some posts on how I turned out financially. Early projections look good.

Saturday, May 28, 2011

How about you just learn patience?

This is wrapping up as another positive month for me. My typing is distracted, I can't resist playing with an American Silver Eagle every few minutes. Holding an Oz of silver in your hand is really titillating on some sublime level. The metal itself is beautiful, and that distinctive 'ring' is incredibly pleasant on the ears. There is no doubt in my mind that precious metals DO stimulate human emotions. Which is exactly why, when buying up bits of shiny metal that ring nicely, you need to remember patience.

 
If you have to ask...
I'm having difficulty budgeting for the pistol I want and the silver I desire. Whether I need either of those things is up to your opinion. If I couldn't have both, then it might be worth my stress. But I found myself this morning actually subconsciously concerned about not being able to buy a pistol until the end of next month, and also concerns on whether or not I should spend that money on more silver. It was leading me to make some emotional decisions with my budgeting.

Take a step back from things that you desire to purchase. In my case, I've known a want for a new pistol for years, but haven't set it as a high priority. Silver is a much newer vehicle for my libertarian side to express itself. However, my short term needs to raise & store cash and cash-equivalents have served to hinder my purchase of another firearm to keep at the apartment (I already own a .22lr carbine). In particular, I've felt an urgency to ride the market very closely - which means waiting while I accumulate the money for the pistol's I've envisioned during the past would take a month or two. This lead to a change in what I wanted in a pistol.

Basically, I've already shorted myself enough on the pistol. Silver will take a backseat temporarily (unless of course we see Silver < $30), and I should have a new gun by the middle of next month. I'll let y'all know. The first week of a new month is always financially cloudy, as that's when I pay off all of my bills.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Silver Bitchez

Last night, I almost bought more silver (federal reserve toilet-paper likes to burn holes in my pocket). If I had, I would have paid $2 extra per oz. Silver has retraced its two day gains, dipping back to $36/oz and seems to be climbing past noon, inching over $37. Thankfully, I decided against the buy, and retained the liquidity hedge.

So this morning I've determined to hold on to that silver money, its going towards a pistol if the price/oz jumps in the next few weeks. If the price drops... say, lower than 32, count me in on the first wave. But of course, I'll retain a hedge in case the price drops even further, or rockets to the moon.

Old-school silver mine.

In the interim, I am debating the purchase of a new firebox, specifically for the storage of my ASE assets. I must admit I have even begun to research the subject, but I will, as always, keep you updated if I make a purchase decision complete with a review.







Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Debating on a pistol

Yes, I'm aware silver has jumped over $2 in the last thirty-six hours, I'll share my thoughts about that with you later. Probably tomorrow after I get more market data. But this post is on guns. Lover's of my other random subjects should check older posts.

For a while I've been intending to acquire a new conceal and carry firearm. My primary constraints in selection are size, initial cost, and ammunition cost. I expect it to tide me over for the next five years until I can upgrade to a duty-size pistol for what I expect to be home instead of apartment and carry-defense.

The guns I've been looking at in particular are 357 revolvers (+revolver +cost ($500-600) +good caliber(357 or .38) +ammunition cost(.38 ammo)) and the small .22lr line of semi's (+size +cost (250-350) +capacity (8+) +ammo cost(.22's are cheap) and +ammo interchange(I already own a .22lr carbine)
Taurus PT-22

The current budget doesn't have room for the revolver, so I've been looking into two .22 semis in particular.
 The Taurus PT-22 and the Walther P22.

Each are attractive in their own right, with the PT-22's primary edge in cost. I don't want to be handgun-less for another two months, I'd like to make a purchase within the next three weeks. That said, I'm pretty sure I can squeeze in the sixty-seventy dollar increase in cost of the Walther, especially since with these guns I don't have to factor in additional ammunition purchases (I already have plenty of .22lr).
A Walther P22 with 5" Barrel

Regardless, I will keep you informed of further developments in personal protection.
Feel free to criticize my choice of caliber size in the comments box below.

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Treat it like a business.

I'm going to try and focus my project-related energy into the hours between 11am and 1pm. This doesn't interfere with my work schedule, and if I can stick to it (which is the goal, and key to success for any routine) productivity should explode. Actually, truth be told, I've been sticking to this for the last five days and have gotten a wide variety of things done. Including a silver trade. I know y'all have been demanding updates.

Spot price at time of purchase was $35.17/oz, and I spent about 60% of this months budgeted silver-money picking up some 2011 ASE's at (net) $43/oz. This still lowers my cost-average/oz from my starting days, and if silver drops this week down to $27/oz, the 40% will cover about the same amount I bought with 60%. Its all about lowering my cost average, one purchase at a time. I'm not looking to make huge profits or take huge savings in the short term. The market is just to volatile right now, and will probably remain so through Monday.

My advice, buy the dip with a portion of your cash earmarked for silver and buy again if the price goes lower. At the end of the month, if nothing extreme has occurred, buy more silver with the remaining cash. If your gut or special research tells you to the price is going to drop further - by all means, hold onto your silver. But on a five year timeline, the likes of which I am investing, silver probably will breach 70/oz - and I'm willing to pay a premium and get the silver in hand.

Remember, I personally get a bit of titillation from expressing silver's value in historical values. So here's a quick recap. (the math is in this post)



At one point in history, the Roman equivalent of a private in the army received 3oz of silver in coins per month in pay. Granted, life was cheap in the empire, and Centurions received a much better rate.






 And of course, imagine buying this at a roman auction for between 100-650oz of  silver. 
(Disclaimer: I'm not promoting sexual slavery)

Have a pleasant afternoon readers.
I'm off to other things, like lunch with a cashier I met.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Some Advice On Life

 This can be filed under philosophy. Check the archived posts on the side to visit other topics of this blog, such as the financial markets, physical health, and so much more.


Remember that novel 'cult-blog' I started up years ago to make some money on the side? Well, it has given me extreme room to explore concepts of self-knowledge. The thing is, I've always envisioned a second stage for this blog. I would like at some point in my life to try my hand at living as a Guru.

This, in addition to some other prerequisites (which I'm going to claim trade secretes), requires an actual philosophy. The cult blog required only a marketable one, thanks to the anonymity of the internet. However, if am I want to seamlessly transition into the role in real life, I need something that won't sink my reputation. E.g. I must BELIEVE in what im saying. and for me to believe in something, i have to have determined it true (but always subject to change).

 So now we get to the meat of the post. When it comes to making progress, it isn't the days where you are feeling great and go above and beyond the limits you've set for yourself. It's the weeks where you feel like sh*t and still do the routine. I've said this before, but it needed a more concise reiteration.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Captain America, The First Avenger

I checked out the trailer via web link on a whim. With my love for the works of Heinlein, a blatant nationalist comic book hero fighting Nazis seemed to have potential. I had also been extremely entertained by Fast Five as an action movie a week or two ago. So yeah, I figured I'd check the trailer.


Hollywood has just found the perfect pulp mixture to feed the masses in the comic book. I know several strange die-hard comic book fans who will worship these movies, with no regard for actual content. The trailer left me feeling that this was just an excuse for a guy to magically get muscles and run around in a suit. If I was in middle school, I'd call that sort of movie gay. But since I'm not (gay/in middle school) I didn't bother to comment aloud on what I was watching.

In fact, if the trailer had remained as boring as it started, I wouldn't be writing. Unfortunately,  it went from boring to bad in a single final scene. Picture the depths of a WW2 secret military research base, or the Stargate missile silo. Medium sized lab, filled with scientists, our protagonist and the love interest. Our protagonist is holding a newly minted super-shield and he asks the (ithinkshesugly/10) chick if its "bullet proof". She proceeds to responds with what I guess was meant to be a spunky coyness "Let's find out!", and SHOOTS SOME ROUNDS. They bounce of the shield and the protagonist is unharmed.

In real life, I wouldn't be worried about the guy behind the shield. I'd be worried about ricochet's taking out an innocent scientist. NO person in their right mind would shoot towards a metal shield in a room filled with people. This isn't about a superhero jumping into the middle of a war zone and not getting a scratch, its about straight up mental retardation on the part of the writers.

That one scene really irked me. Especially as a gun owner. But now that I've invested that anger towards a positive (filling up this blog), I'm going to return to readying some investment options. Peace.




On the left is a shameless plug for one of Heinlein's greatest works on polyandrous feelings and social politics. Grabbed by people on both side of the isle for different things, from libertarian individualism, explorations of free love, to a simple fascination with aliens.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Conscious Style

Yes, its another Rap post. Those interested in silver markets and finance can check out earlier posts, here, here, and here. Readers who are looking for my posts on health will want to jump to this link.  For older posts about more my more youthful woman chasing and recreation.... And Finally ... if you are after my political views, just check the links further on in this post.

Conscious Style is a fantastic collaboration from KRS-1 and little known, extremely political 5%'ers, Poor Righteous Teachers. I'm enjoying the album Conscious Style is from, New World Order. If that doesn't give you a hint to how extremely political this album is, the intro's title "Who shot the president?" outght to clear things up.





Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Beneath a Steel Sky

 Its pouring rain outside, and I've got a shift in a few hours. Extensive construction is taking place in the residential apartments near mine, and I can hear the drywall drilling over the rain. To say the least, is an unfriendly sky that looks down on the city right now. Much like the economic situation looms above our nation. In someways this is a ride that seems doomed to tumble, but in life there are no guarantees about the future. All that can be done is urge for stability, support the normalcy bias around you, while trying to hedge against rough times.

Thus, I'm living today in similar ways as I would if the economy was booming. Sure, I am allocating my Federal Reserve Notes into different savings. Precious metals instead of stocks, cash instead of pensions/IRA's  (but I'm still maintaining 10% in stocks... always, always hedge). But in terms of my health, my recreation? No real change.

I am positive in my actions, confident in my abilities to survive, adapt, and overcome. And this confidence starts with each small goal we set and achieve. Something as simple as eating a healthy breakfast every morning, or going for a nightly run, are be positive. If combined with a large number of other positives and replicated over a long-enough timeline, results will become evident.

It may be dour and grim outside the panes of my window, but inside, it doesn't matter.


(Title of post is in reference to a 1994 adventure game.)

Monday, May 16, 2011

That constant search for progress

I'm going to give the silver a rest for the next day or two, unless something drastic changes. I won't be able to buy more silver until my paycheck arrives, and that will be another week. In the meantime, I'm working on several smaller projects, and of course - both that short scenario, and the health/personal growth goals I'd set out. I'm working later today, and I'm going to take a moment to speak on these things. File this one under the "Philosophy" part of the blog.




Man is not meant to be stagnant. For thousands of years humanity has always gravitated towards a specific type of athletic thinker. It was the ideal of the Greeks and Romans. And it has been taken to the extreme by our modern bodybuilders, willing to experiment and pave the way for (what I hope will be) a deregulation of steroids, which in my opinion, have tremendous potential in the medical and military field.




That said, learning from the wisdom of thousands of active, strong, generations, we find no pro-hormones or Clen cycles are needed to gain a health, good looking body. Remember, you aren't going to achieve the results of Arnold (if ever) in a single day. Progress will be measured by months, not days - so what matters is increasing your AVERAGE amount of positive physical change and sustaining it for a period of time. What is the timeless "crash diet" critique? They started off strong, then shortly exploded? Whereas the average "built" person started with a less intense approach, and scaled it up over months.

Every little thing you do matters... but keep it in the scale of a month, not a day, when it comes to physical health.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Market Manipulations

At close of trading on Wednesday, May 4th, the market for silver had seen tremendous selling pressure that drove prices down by 17.3% from Thursday, April 28th.  The sell off corresponded precisely to a number of increased margin requirements by the COMEX  for trading contracts in silver futures.


Silver speculators who may have been concerned over additional margin increases did not have long to wait.  After close on Wednesday, May 4th, the COMEX declared two additional large hikes in silver margin, effective at the close of business on Thursday and another hike effective at the close of trading on Monday, May 9th. As of Monday, initial contract margin requirements would be increased to $21,600 and to $16,000 for hedgers.  One year ago, with silver trading in the $18 range, the margin requirement for a speculative contract was only $4,250.

This series of five margin increases by the COMEX created a jump in initial margin requirements for speculators from $11,745 to $21,600 - an increase of 84%.    The margin requirements for hedgers also increased by 84% from $8,700 to $16,000.   Silver futures traders now would be forced to come up with huge amounts of additional cash or liquidate holdings on price weakness.   The collapse in silver prices on Thursday May 5th, triggered by the COMEX margin increases, indicates that many players were forced to liquidate positions.

The actions taken by the COMEX constitute a perfect text book example on how to crash a market. The non stop increases in margin requirements resulted in a dramatic reduction of liquidity in the silver market by forcing out small speculators who were not prepared to commit additional cash for margin maintenance.  As prices fell in response to the COMEX margin increases, bigger players in the silver market were forced to liquidate positions to avoid margin calls and large losses on leveraged positions.

The last two margin increases by the COMEX, instituted after silver had already declined by over 17%, created the perfect crash scenario.   Silver traders liquidating positions to meet new margin requirements caused a further cascade of forced selling and the silver crash became inevitable. The elimination of liquidity from any market will result in falling prices and the COMEX knew this.


If someone wanted to crash the silver market, the moves taken by the COMEX were perfectly designed to accomplish this by reducing liquidity at a time during which the markets were already stressed from previous margin increases. The result was a collapse in silver prices from $48.70 to the $34 range.

In response to the outrage over the devastating series of margin requirement increases, Kim Taylor, President of CME Clearing, which owns the COMEX, issued a statement explaining CME's actions. According to Ms. Taylor, margin increases are related to risk management and done to prevent default by clearing member firms.  Margins are adjusted based on market volatility and are not designed to move a market or discourage investor participation.  Among the factors considered in setting margins is a CME calculation of a worst case scenario for possible portfolio losses.

 The actions of the COMEX in implementing a rapid series of margin increases, even after silver had already steeply sold off, resulted in large profits to short sellers and reduced risk for CME at the expense of huge losses for silver investors both large and small.

COMEX Silver opens in about four hours.

Remember, the COMEX resumes weekly trading Sundays at 6PM. From everything I've been reading on the fringe markets, I expect silver to drop in the next few days. But that is my personal speculation, and its not backed by me actually investing anything (paycheck won't be in for another week). If the fringe sites are correct, I would expect 30/oz in the next five days. If their predictions come true, I'll give them more weight in the future.

We'll see starting at 6pm which direction this precious metal heads. I encourage y'all to watch. I will be at work. 
Enjoy the rest of the day, its beautiful in the city where I'm at.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

An open invitation to come and kick it with Satan.

"Symetic solar systematically
scramble thoughts like eggs on Sunday morning,
OJ and acid drops [drip drip drip],
Randomly rippin' spots,
like an open invitation to come and kick it with Satan."
- Styles of Beyond 'Holograms' (Embedded at the end of the post.)


This month is shaping up to be one of my most successful both financially, and with regard to budgeting. The two are distinct, good budgeting can't guarantee financial security (expenses happen, sometimes outside of the realm of projections) - and just because you end the month with a bunch of cash doesn't mean you've budgeted well (you may have spent to much money on worthless crap).


So far, the month has been fantastic - and has only seen positives. Remember in order to take steps forward, you have to set out several small tasks and goals to complete. Complete them as best you can, take stock at the end - then prepare a new set of goals and repeat the process. Last night a friend and I went up to the local bar scene, and ripped up the mike on karaoke (got free rounds of beer for our stellar performance of some classic rap).

Just want to inject some positive motivation to my readers out their who are facing the same challenges I do.
Remember, don't ever get numb to the progress you make on your endeavors.

-------------------
Styles of beyond returns to this blog, with anther fantastic track from their album 2000 Fold.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

The foundations of the short scenario

How to make that one-hundred a month in four months? The current goal would be a revitalization of the cult blog, with renewed use of the ad-words campaign. The first two days have shown a tremendous positive response in unique views, compared to the same date range last year, up 340%, and peaking previous year highs. However, these campaigns are labor intensive, and factoring in opportunity costs will not net $100/Month.

The only solution is to succeed in building up either a large enough database to consume traffic, or a large enough draw and culture to generate organic content (<-E.g. what i did with the entheogen forum experiment). If the views die off sharply after I stop the investment, then my time is severely leveraged, and I have to put in more capital. The key is to find a level where the return is stabilized, preferably growing, and then stop further investment to reevaluate.

I will keep those of you interested in this particular scenario updated. 

Long Call Explanation

Just a quick post for those new to the game about what a Long Call is. Since I got a few questions about it.
  • A long call is simply the purchase of one call option.
  • You expect the price to rise in the long term.  
  • You risk the price dropping and not being able to sell-off and recoup losses
  • E.g. I buy twenty shares of paper silver at $38, if the price goes up, then I can make a profit.
 Just beware market manipulation and natural corrections when investing. Especially if you are trying to reap each bubble. I wouldn't recommend jumping into that level of trading right away unless you have past experience.

What would you do with $212.93?

... A stranger on a forum I frequent for health advice posted this query. He had discovered an online account where he had stashed it. That amount is roughly similar to my short-term goal saving's & investment income. So, as I like to do, I drew up a monstrous open office spreadsheet and ran some numbers. After all, earning the money is just the first step - you've got to figure out how to reinvest an inflating federal $1 reserve note. 



So currently my spending plan, lets name it Operation Long Call , is thus:
  •  Investment/Savings Balance Start: $212.93
  • Percent to FRN Cash - 20% - Balance: ($42.586) = $171.34
  • Percent to PM's - 20% - Balance: ($42.586)=$128.758
  • Percent to Online Bank - 60% - Balance (+$0.00)=128.758

Now the scenario calls for this to be a self-sustaining project, separate from ongoing concerns such as my job at Home Depot. So these savings would be extra from normal savings. It would at current prices probably fetch 1-2Oz silver, and around an extra $42 in cash savings, and a nice $128.76 in savings.



So now that we know its worth the time, lets see if someone can reach it. You know I'm always trying.

"Everybody wants to rule the world..."

 "Everybody wants to rule the world..."
A particularly poetic chorus from Nas' album Stillmatic will mark the first artistic flavored post in a while. It does a good job on timing to.

I opened the wall street journal today to read an article on the FDIC hiking margins on the FOREX for those investors beneath 10 million. This move is to help "Retail Investors" not suffer from market volatility, but it forces the small investor out. But I won't go that political (<- Check the date on that one ;) with this post.

I used to loathe rap, but have had a complete conversion over the last year, and now consider myself something of an expert. Here is something mainstream but still fantastic.

 


A much better rap song from the same album, but far less likely to appeal to most of you readers is Rewind. Listen to the lyrics and relax, just tell yourself its "art".




Free-Electron Laser in Hamburg (or FLASH) now at 1.25 Giga Electron-volts

- Taken from the official website of FLASH at http://flash.desy.de/
"The free-electron laser FLASH (Free-Electron Laser in Hamburg) has set a new record: this weekend, the FLASH accelerator team operated the FEL with an electron energy of 1.25 Giga electronvolts, thus reaching a wavelength of 4.12 nanometres. For the first time FLASH has generated laser light in the so-called water window using the fundamental wavelength – so far this was only reached with laser harmonics. The flashes with the short wavelengths had an average energy of 70 and a peak energy of 130 micro joules."


 I spotted this gem of further reading while digging for information on silver nitrate, and silver in general. I'll update with some of those reads as an investing pitch later tonight. After all, I need to determine an investment strategy to meet the new short term-goal of $100 a month in four.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Health Update

In addition to financial musings, I also feel its time to start incorporating some of the subjects of my other blog projects. Particularly, those on health. I've already talked the occasional tangent related to to the physical field, but here is an update from a recent doctors visit:

Height: 5'10"
Weight: 169
BPM 60 (I blame this on nicotine withdrawal, I got lots of shaking-bouts, and heightened heart rate)
Heart and breathing good, blood pressure good.
Clean bill of health.

Bodyfat around 11-12% and dropping, mirror almost revealing abs. Summer is off to a good start.




The current "diet" I'm on is a culmination of three years of tweaking -  (and remember "diet" is a weak word for what should be a lifestyle change):

During the average workday I wake up and have a bowl of cereal, a protein shake (ON Whey bannana cream and whole milk), and the first Optimum Nutrition Multi of the three for the day. For lunch I often grab a couple handful of nuts and a sliced turkey BLT wrap, and another shake (1 scoop or +24g protein each, so not particularly big doses of whey). For my workbreak and dinner I often grab local fastfood, such as Hardees big bag special (2 double cheeseburger's, french fry, apple turnover + sweet tea for about $5.45) I will also usually drink a starbucks energy drink prior to my shift.


On my days off, I often eat a slimmer breakfast, then a gigantic feast for a late lunch (to a reasonable level, I don't go drastically past my caloric needs). This "feast" today was a loaf of Artisan Roasted Garlic Bread + stick of Goat Cheese (on sale) the large majority of a rotisserie chicken, and about four shakes mixed throughout the day with a few handfuls of mixed nuts.

Bear in mind that I've got a moderately active job (walking for 8 hour shifts, occasionally moving moderately heavy things like paving stones, or mulch bags, etc.), and do my current (limited) workout routine all week long. So my maintenance caloric needs may be larger compared to people with a desk job, or who are older.


Paradigm Shifts Count.

You know the sort of cultist-holistic approach I take to things - so here's a tangent toward overall financial betterment distinct from silver, and somewhat distinct for this site. With some student loans coming up, my scenario charts show I need to start making $100/month in additional income from these side side projects. I have four months. So another task to overcome.



$100/Month in Four months still seems like an easier goal than Thirteen thousand in six...but that isn't going to make it easy. The main approach will be a renewed interest in Google adwords - which I played around with off of a free trail from hostgator a while back when doing that website. Which later evolved into a browser based RPG based around the rap album liquid swords. I did the coding myself, but wasn't able to finish and completely debug the game before running out of capital. But several friends were able to play in a beta version and enjoyed it.

But back to the point, I think the right investments over the next four months (which of course I will post about to give you, the reader, ideas for your own breakaway pursuits) will let me nail this goal.

Monday, May 9, 2011

Silver isn't dead... But it is toxic to sheep.

Two days into the silver crash I received a text from my girlfriend in the late hours of the evening.  It went something like "Oh honey, you shouldn't have bought all that silver, apparently it crashed today :( " (That smiley face WAS included in the original text.). My girlfriend was duly concerned that I had somehow "lost" a great deal of money because last she heard, I was buying silver.

I kid! I kid!

There are two important reason's why this "bubble crash" never hurt me, and are examples to help you ride this unique market.

#1 Paradigm Shift: I'm not a short term investor in silver.
Repeat after me: "Until I actually have taken delivery of silver and found the best ways to buy in bulk I will not "invest" in silver for short term profit." I'm sure some of you out there are smarter than I am, and might be able to jump right in, but if you don't understand the following terms you should plan to begin by investing for long-term silver holdings. Again, if you don't know what the COMEX is, or what the impact of margin hikes multiple times a month are, or have a fair understanding of the Federal Reserve (and the Federal Reserve Note), you should plan to start out with a paradigm shift.

That paradigm shift is this: I do not plan to sell my silver for AT least another five years.  Instead it will replace 50% of my FRN saving's per month towards long term goals like land, or a new car. Rather than pulling for silver to go to the moon over night, you want to dip as low as possible before a slow return over time. At no point should you dump your entire savings into silver without first slowly playing with small amounts to determine the most frugal way to buy.

I bought my silver about $30/oz. But I spent closer to $45/oz, because of stupid newbie buying mistakes. Picking up art bars/mistakes while buying on ebay. However, with a budget of just $200 i didn't do myself any real financial damage, and the lessons I learned were invaluable. I then bought another round of $200, at a spot of $42, but this time reduced my cost-over-spot (including shipping) down to around $47. At this point I was fighting very, very hard to resist blowing the rest of my cash savings on buying more. The internet was full of forums charging ahead crying "SILVER BITCHES!", conflating those who were investing in silver for the first time (like me) and silver hoarders who had been in the game since $9/Oz.















Thankfully, two days before my girlfriends text, I had managed to learn enough about the market to identify several key trends from my internet sources (mostly random forums) the news (the wall street journal, drudge report, al jarzeera) that told me that silver wasn't quite going to make the immediate predictions. So i held on to my FRN's and looked at my small stack of dearly bought metal. See, if I had been in for a short profit, I would have sold because I was 70% sure it wasn't going much higher. But I'm in for the long haul, and there was that 30% risk that I would repeat my $45/oz for $30/oz worth of silver and not be able to get back in the game at a higher price.

So what did I do? I waited, and I've just bought more. In a long term game, as long as I'm always somewhere in the middle of the fluctuations, I'll come out on top when its time to sell. THAT is the paradigm shift you must have when you first start investing in silver.






#2 The Value of Silver: Silver is a metal, not paper.
The initial explanation I was given in second grade as to why we printed money instead of gold consisted of two things: "It was lighter/carry more, we can print more if it gets destroyed or lost." Hahahaha... Yeah....
The public school system completely failed to teach my just how much more complex the monetary system of our government is, and has become.It required my own research to fully start to understand.

But here's the neat thing about silver. It doesn't really "lose" value. At one time in history a roman private was was the equivalent of around three (3) ounces of silver a month in pay. How cool is that? You can measure your savings by months of backbreaking work as a roman soldier. A more sinister, but even more staggering way to view silver....
"The denarius began to experience slow debasement towards the end of the Republic. Under the rule of Augustus its silver content fell to 3.9 grams (a theoretical weight of 184 of a Roman pound). It then remained at near this weight until the time of Nero, when it was reduced to 196 of a pound, or 3.4 grams. Regular debasement of the silver began after Nero. Later Roman emperors reduced it to a weight of 3 grams around the late 3rd century.[7]"
" The price for a male slave in Rome at the time of Augustus has been quoted at 500 denarii. A female could go for as much as 6,000 denarii. One recorded price in Pompeii at 79 AD indicates that a slave sold for 2,500 sestertii or 625 denarii."
-http://www.unrv.com/culture/roman-slavery.php

So, the cost in troy ounces for a human life in roman times is a horrifying range of between 62.69 Troy ounces and 665.88 Troy Ounces.


And if you have any understanding of Christian Theology, you will recall that Jesus was sold for a mere thirty coins, maybe around 3 and half oz?

.....This will be continued in a future post.

The new direction: It Ain't Where You're From, It's Where You're At.

It's taken a long, long time for me to reach the point I'm at now in my life. I started this blog near the beginning of my college career and strangely enough, as far as I've veered from it, I always come back. I've completed thousands of side projects, but I feel this one still has some legs. And the problems I faced then, desperate for money, are problems we all face.

So, from this point further, accept that I will be sharing my financial strategies, thoughts and plans.
After all, who wouldn't want to raise thirteen grand in six months?