Sunday, July 17, 2011


 We are about to have three carriers within striking range of Iran just over two months before the upcoming Palestinian state vote.  I'm very, very concerned. I am under the belief that we will see a war between Israel and Iran within that time period. It has been boiling and boiling. I think Israel is feeling to much economic pressure, it is nearing the point where it must attempt a "six day war". With further political will around the globe weakening, and with economic disaster looming over Europe, now is the time.  If we were playing a strategy game, this would be my six months overview of Israel.
United States Carrier Movements
 There are two great dangers to Israel. The first great danger consists of hostile Muslims, and anti-Semitic regimes such as Iran. The second is of magnitudes larger: political climate towards my nation. Now, I (playing Israel) am in a cold war with Iran. Neither nation is eager to pull the trigger and face the clearly gun-happy Americans, and the grey threat of the EU, whose military had been little seen. (Obviously, Israel might face the economic wrath of these countries, while Iran would probably feel bombs.)

But now, the "international community" is in shambles. The united states doesn't have the economic capability to hurt Israel, and probably would not react terribly negatively to an Israel first strike. Europe is rapidly facing economic collapse, and, given the jump in fuel if I struck first, probably would go under very fast. So no international condemnation. The united states is nearing the end of its presence in Iraq, which from Israel's perspective, is only going to hasten a powerful Iran. Striking now, I'd still have the Americans as a buffer. Five years from now, Iraq and Iran might be leading armies of liberation into Palestine following a successful vote.

Egypt is out of commission, as is Ghaddafi, whose gold and unhindered presence could have easily funded some serious bombings (as he's done before). Further, the Anti-missile defense system Israel put into use this spring, has been an apparent success. I doubt there are enough stocks to deal with Palestinian rockets, but if Iranian MRBM's get through Iraq, I'm sure the Israelis' would be confident that never before have they had this level of protection. 
A meltdown in the EU and the US (caused by war) would probably also injure china, to a point where it might be unable to sustain any military action (although Taiwan might vanish). Japan isn't going to be doing anything, and in fact, I could almost expect the US and China to do a quick swap, by-by Taiwan, goodbye Iran.


But anyway, to far past initial hostilities and we're just talking fantasy. But I think we will see it go down by September and will prep accordingly.


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